domingo, 27 de septiembre de 2015

Análisis avances PMI China/Eurozona/USA septiembre2015


ANÁLISIS de los avances de los índices PMI®de China/Eurozona/USA 
de septiembre 2015

 

 

 

 

China flash manufacturing PMI™ hits lowest since March 2009

China’s manufacturing economy contracted at the steepest rate for six-and-a-half years in September, according to survey data. Accelerating job losses, slumping export orders, an unwanted build up of unsold inventories and falling prices add to the downbeat news.

Here are the five key takeaways from the September survey:

1.Growth has hit a 6 ½ year low


The headline Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI™, compiled by Markit, fell from 47.3 in August to 47.0 in September, according to the flash estimate. The latest reading is the weakest since March 2009, at the height of the global financial crisis. At 47.4, the third quarter average is down sharply from 49.2 in the second quarter and the lowest since the first quarter of 2009. The downturn in the PMI suggests that the pace of economic growth slowed further in the third quarter from the 7.0% annual pace seen in the second quarter.

 

2.Order books are slumping as demand weakens at home and abroad

New orders fell at the fastest rate since November 2011, finishing off the worst quarter for order books since the opening quarter of 2009. Export orders slumped to the greatest extent seen since June 2013, suffering one of the largest declines seen since the global financial crisis.
 
 


3.Accelerating job losses will be a particular concern to the authorities

The rate of job shedding quickened to its fastest since January 2009, as companies laid off workers in the face of slumping demand from customers both at home and abroad.

Factory employment


 
The government is expecting manufacturing growth to slow, but is especially sensitive to weaker economic growth feeding through to higher unemployment. The increased rate at which factories are laying off staff therefore suggests that the authorities may step up their stimulus measures.

 
4.A build-up of inventories suggests production will continue to fall in October

Stocks of finished goods rose at the fastest rate for three years (and one of the largest rises in the survey’s 11-year history). The increase was commonly the result of disappointing sales. The ratio of new orders to raw material inventories also slipped to one of the lowest seen in the history of the survey, pointing to further downward pressure on production volumes in coming months.

Orders: inventory ratio

 

 
5.Prices fell for fourteenth month running

Factory gate charges fell at the steepest rate for eight months as firms passed on lower input costs in a bid to boost demand. Average raw material prices showed the largest decline for five months, in part reflecting lower global commodity prices. Both output prices and input prices have now fallen for fourteen consecutive months, highlighting ongoing deflationary pressures in the world’s largest manufacturing economy.
 
 



 

 

 

 

Eurozone flash PMI rounds off best quarter for four years despite dip in September

The September PMI surveys indicate a further steady expansion of the eurozone economy, but there remains a worrying failure of growth to accelerate to a pace sufficient to generate either higher inflation or strong job creation.

France continued to lag the upturn, but saw growth pick up from the near-stagnation seen in August. Growth meanwhile slowed in Germany and in the rest of the region.

The ECB would no doubt like to see more bang for their euros as far as stimulus from their QE programme is concerned, but it’s debatable whether these numbers are weak enough to convince the central bank to take more aggressive action just yet.

 

Solid(ish) third quarter

The Markit Eurozone PMI slipped from 54.3 in August to 53.9 in September, according to the preliminary ‘flash’ reading. The latest index came in below consensus expectations of a dip to 54.1 but nevertheless remained broadly in line with recent readings seen over the past eight months.

The September reading was also sufficiently strong to push the third quarter average to the highest seen since the second quarter of 2011 (the average of 54.0 compares with 53.9 in the second quarter).

The survey data therefore indicate that the eurozone economy expanded 0.4% in the third quarter, in line with the second quarter. This is, however, below what’s generally regarded as its long-term potential growth rate and puts the economy on course to grow by just 1.6% this year.
 


Job creation sinks to eight-month low

Further robust expansion is signalled for the start of the fourth quarter, with growth of new orders hitting a five-month high in September and pushing backlogs of work up to the greatest extent seen since May 2011. But the rate of job creation eased to an eight-month low as many firms focused on boosting productivity.

The failure of current business growth to generate faster job creation suggest unemployment will remain high and therefore that consumer spending may in turn act as a drag on the economy.

 

First rise in services prices since 2011

Average input costs rose marginally, the rate of increase having slowed markedly since earlier in the summer to the weakest since February, largely on the back of the steepest drop in manufacturing input prices since January. The marked decline in manufacturing costs reflected widespread commodity price falls, especially oil. Input cost inflation in services edged slightly higher.

Average selling prices were meanwhile largely unchanged compared with August. Charges levied for services rose (though only marginally) for the first time since August 2011 in a sign of improved pricing power. Factory gate prices fell, however, dropping for the first time in six months as manufacturers passed lower raw material costs on to customers.

 

Growth is set to accelerate in Germany

Although growth slowed slightly in Germany in September, the euro area’s largest member state has seen the best quarterly expansion for a year. German growth was again led by the service sector, supported by solid growth in manufacturing. Furthermore, growth of new business hit the highest since November 2013, backlogs of work jumped to the greatest extent since May 2011 and employment rose at the fastest rate since December 2011, pointing to an increasingly sustainable-looking upturn.
 


France remains the sickest patient

In France, the rate of expansion in business activity picked up from the near-stagnation seen in August but remained only modest. The survey data are pointing to a mere 0.1% expansion of the French economy in the third quarter.

Growth accelerated in both the French service sector and manufacturing, the latter enjoying the fastest increase in output for one-and-a-half years. However, employment fell at the fastest rate for ten months as firms sought to cut capacity and raise productivity.
 



 

 

 

 

US flash PMI results paint picture of slowing economy and falling prices

The survey data point to sustained steady expansion of the US economy at the end of the third quarter, but various warning lights are now flashing brighter, meaning growth may continue to weaken in coming months.

Although the surveys suggest the economy expanded at a 2.2% annualised rate in the third quarter, growth slowed in September and could weaken further in coming months. Business optimism slumped to one of the lowest levels seen since the global financial crisis, inflows of news business rose at the weakest rate for eight months and job creation slipped to a six-month low. Growth is also becoming increasingly reliant on the services economy as manufacturers struggle against the strong dollar and weak demand in export markets.

Average prices charged for goods and services are meanwhile falling at the fastest rate seen since the survey began in late-2009, suggesting consumer price inflation will weaken in coming months.

With growth slowing, warning lights flashing and prices falling at the fastest rate for at least six years, the survey data play into the hands of dovish policymakers and will reduce the odds of interest rates rising any time soon.

 

Here are five key charts from the flash PMI surveys:

 

1.Growth set to slip to 2.2% in third quarter


 
 
At 55.3 the weighted average of the flash Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI business activity measures fell below the 55.7 readings seen in the prior two months. The data indicate that economic growth will have slowed from the 3.9% annualised pace seen in the second quarter, down to around 2.2% in the third quarter.

 

2. Business optimism slump bodes ill for Q4



Business expectations about the year ahead slumped lower in the service sector, a weakening that commonly presages a slowing in the wider economy. Unless business confidence revives, GDP growth could slow further in the fourth quarter, possible quite markedly as optimism is now running at one of the lowest levels seen since the global financial crisis.

 

3. Smallest rise in employment since March


 
The all-sector Employment Index fell to a six-month low in September, but remained elevated by historical standards. A regression-based comparison against official data indicates that the surveys are consistent with a 207,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September, which would be sufficiently strong to boost the argument for interest rates to rise this year. The survey data also suggest August’s additional 173,000 payroll count will also be revised higher.

 

4. Prices fell at steepest rate in survey history


Average prices charged for goods and services fell for a second successive month in September, with the rate of decline accelerating to the highest seen since data from the two PMI survey was first available back in October 2009.

Input costs, measured across manufacturing and services, meanwhile showed the smallest rise for six months, largely reflecting lower commodity prices, especially for fuels, as well as cheaper imports due to the stronger dollar.

 

5. Order book growth has turned down sharply
 
 
 
Across both manufacturing and services, backlogs of work fell for a second successive month, suggesting firms could start cutting capacity in coming months unless demand starts picking up. However, inflows of new orders grew at the slowest rate for eight months in September. Manufacturing fared especially badly, with export orders having stagnated over the third quarter as producers suffered the double whammy of weakened demand in key export markets (notably China) and the stronger dollar.

2 comentarios:

  1. 29 de septiembre.-

    APERTURA EN EUROPA (08:16)
    Se espera una apertura claramente bajista en Europa.
    Y es que Europa se encuentra de buena mañana con una Vela feísima al cierre del viernes en EEUU, mucho más abajo de donde estaba al cierre de la sesión europea. Vela fea tanto en el S&P 500 como en el Nasdaq, el Dow Jones se salvó más de la quema, al verse distorsionado por la fuerte subida de Nike tras sus resultados.
    Sigue pareciendo absolutamente clave para el resto de bolsas mundiales, el soporte 1.888-1.900 del futuro del Mini S&P 500, si lo pierde la extensión de las bajadas va a ser general. En cambio si consiguiera mantenerse por encima de 1.950 volvería algo más de tranquilidad. Aunque aún así la tendencia sigue siendo de manera general en las bolsas, bajista.

    PIVOT POINTS (08:17)
    1ªResistencia 9.585
    Pivot 9.497
    1º soporte 9.434
    2º soporte 9.371
    3º soporte 9.283

    Personalmente creo que la reacción de los mercados al 27-S debería ser de alivio.
    Ni han ganado los independentistas, ni han ganado los antisistema, aunque tampoco hayan ganado los centristas.
    Sólo ha perdido la gobernalidad, y ello no necesariamente tiene que ser negativo en una región.
    Veremos.
    Consecuentemente, de entrada, me decanto por ver la apertura cancelando las órdenes previas:
    .) el STOP LOSS FIJO
    .) el STOP LOSS MÓVIL
    .) las órdenes de compra
    Y mantengo mi posición 100% IBEX FUTURO OCTUBRE en el nivel 9.337

    Visto lo visto en la apertura:
    1.-Tras la apertura (9.466), subida del Ibex
    2.-Bajada de los índices europeos
    3.-Neutralidad de los futuros USA
    Tras 30 minutos (con el futuro Ibex superando el nivel 9.500):
    ---> Vuelvo a poner el STOP LOSS FIJO en el nivel 9.567
    ---> vuelvo a poner el STOP LOSS MÓVIL, con un margen del 1%, en el nivel 9.464 (9.560 -1%)
    Vuelvo a poner órdenes de compra:
    .) una en el nivel 9.400 (entre 1º y 2º soportes)
    .) otra en el nivel 9.300 (entre 2º y 3º soportes)

    A los pocos minutos me salta el STOP LOSS FIJO en el nivel 9.567
    ---> Vendo 100% IBEX FUTURO OCTUBRE en el nivel 9.567
    ---> Tengo un beneficio de 230x1 = +230 “ticks” (-5 "ticks" para gastos) = +225 "ticks"
    ---> El BENEFICIO REALIZADO ACUMULADO 2015 sube a 15.850 "ticks" (versus 2.980 "ticks" en el año 2014, 5.115 en 2013, y 11.416 en 2012)
    ---> ESTOY FUERA DEL MERCADO
    ---> Tengo dos órdenes de compra de 200% IBEX FUTURO OCTUBRE:
    .)una en el nivel 9.400
    .)otra en el nivel 9.300

    SITUACIÓN INTRADÍA. (10:41)
    Estamos en tendencia bajista, luego no hacen falta motivos para bajar.
    Volkswagen vuelve a las caídas tras decirse que la trampa se conocía desde el año 2011, lo cual mete ahora a políticos en el berenjenal.
    El mal cierre del viernes de EEUU
    Los soportes de 1.888-1.900 en el futuro del mini S&P 500 y los mínimos del lunes negro en los futuros del Dax y del Eurostoxx siguen siendo la clave.

    --->
    Me alegro estar fuera del mercado
    Y no creo que el Ibex pueda mantenerse positivo
    Sólo compraría en los niveles marcados (y vigilando al S&P500, cuyo futuro está ahora en 1.904,75)

    El giro bajista del Ibex ha sido tajante y duro ... hasta el nivel del primer soporte

    ResponderEliminar
  2. 29 de septiembre (2).-

    Spread España e Italia
    Deuda española a 10 años al 1,95% y el italiano al 1,76%.
    Es decir el diferencial es de 19 puntos contra España, el viernes rondaba 25 puntos básicos.
    Gráfico de Bloomberg/https://twitter.com/TheStalwartLeer

    La primera orden de compra se materializa en el nivel 9.400
    ---> Tengo 200% IBEX FUTURO OCTUBRE en el nivel 9.400
    ---> Pongo STOP LOSS MÓVIL para el 200% IBEX FUTURO OCTUBRE, con un margen del 0,5%, inicialmente en el nivel en 9.353 (9.400 -0,5%)
    ---> Pongo 1 STOP LOSS FIJO para el 200% IBEX FUTURO OCTUBRE en el nivel 9.455

    El STOP LOSS MÓVIL para el 200% IBEX FUTURO OCTUBRE, con un margen del 0,5%, está en el nivel en 9.391 (9.438 -0,5%)

    Me saltó el STOP LOSS MÓVIL en el nivel 9.391
    ---> Vendo 200% IBEX FUTURO OCTUBRE en el nivel 9.391
    ---> Tengo una pérdida de 9x2 = -18 “ticks” (-10 "ticks" para gastos) = -28 "ticks"
    ---> El BENEFICIO REALIZADO ACUMULADO 2015 baja a 15.822 "ticks" (versus 2.980 "ticks" en el año 2014, 5.115 en 2013, y 11.416 en 2012)
    ---> ESTOY FUERA DEL MERCADO
    ---> Sigue pendiente la orden de compra en el nivel 9.300

    ResponderEliminar

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