lunes, 4 de abril de 2016

Perturbación

Movimientos monetarios:

Junk funds saw inflows of $550 million (from Lipper), the fifth straight week of positive flows.


Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage rates were unchanged at 3.71% (up one bp y-o-y). Fifteen-year rates added two bps to 2.98% (unchanged). Bankrate's survey of jumbo mortgage borrowing costs had 30-yr fixed rates down five bps to 3.76% (down 26bps).


Federal Reserve Credit last week declined $6.1bn to $4.445 TN. Over the past year, Fed Credit declined $0.7bn, or 0.1%. Fed Credit inflated $1.640 TN, or 58%, over the past 177 weeks. Elsewhere, Fed holdings for foreign owners of Treasury, Agency Debt last week gained $4.2bn to $3.260 TN. "Custody holdings" were about unchanged y-o-y.


M2 (narrow) "money" supply last week surged $37.5bn to a record $12.572 TN. "Narrow money" expanded $728bn, or 6.1%, over the past year. For the week, Currency increased $2.6bn. Total Checkable Deposits jumped $40.4bn, and Savings Deposits gained $5.3bn. Small Time Deposits were down $3.7bn. Retail Money Funds fell $7.4bn.


Total money market fund assets rose $13.9bn to $2.765 TN. Money Funds rose $132bn y-o-y (5.0%).


Total Commercial Paper gained $10.9bn to $1.101 TN. CP expanded $90 billion y-o-y, or 8.9%.


Hedge funds are crowding into U.S. Treasuries, and that has bond traders bracing for more turbulence. While the Federal Reserve doesn’t break out hedge-fund ownership, a group seen as a proxy increased its holdings to a record $1.27 trillion in the past year… That came as foreign central banks and finance ministries, the biggest buy-and-hold owners in recent years, culled their investments for the first time on an annual basis since 2000… Hedge funds are also signaling their presence in the U.S. bond market in other ways. Since the end of 2013, investors domiciled in the Caribbean, a popular legal home for hundreds of hedge funds seeking lower taxes, have increased their holdings of Treasuries by 43% to $352 billion…




MarketWatch (Rolfe Winkler): “Venture-capital firms are raising money at the highest rate in more than 15 years, even as the values of some once-hot startups have begun to cool. With the quarter nearly over, U.S. venture funds have collected about $13 billion, which would be the largest total since the dot-com boom in 2000, according to… Dow Jones VentureSource… Investors have stayed excited about venture capital because it offers higher growth in a low-return environment.”

A grosso modo esta semana en USA los insiders han tenido un flujo de por cada 3 compras 7 ventas.

A destacar... 




 Ventas en Facebook







A nivel patrio comentar, como se ha comentado durante la semana en los comentarios, que se acumulan muchas posiciones compradoras en los cierres. 
Este dato es perturbador... porque las subidas se esperan y no aparecen, al menos a la velocidad esperada.

Parece claro que esta semana iniciaremos un nuevo tramo, desconozco si al alza o la baja. Usa sigue subiendo espectacularmente y parece que no tiene techo hasta la próxima subida de tipos. 


Pronto tendremos sobre la mesa... a Grecia







Three officials said the refugee crisis, the U.K. “Brexit” referendum and Greece’s July deadline to repay about 2.3 billion euros ($2.6 billion) in principal on Greek bonds held by the European Central Bank were key events that could bring the issue to a head, according to the transcript on the WikiLeaks website.







Talks are expected to resume on Monday and Athens hopes for a compromise before April 22, when euro zone finance ministers are expected to assess its progress.

Para finalizar un ejemplo de cómo los precios bajos del petróleo afectan a las empresas de USA.
Financial Times (Ed Crooks): “About 600 people packed on to the Machinery Auctioneers lot on the outskirts of San Antonio, Texas, last week to pick up some of the pieces shaken loose by the oil crash. Trucks, trailers, earth movers and other machines used in the nearby Eagle Ford shale formation were sold at rock-bottom prices. One lucky bargain hunter was able to pick up a flatbed truck for moving drilling rigs — worth about $400,000 new — for just $65,000… The fire sale in Texas is just a small part of the worldwide value destruction caused by the oil decline. From Calgary to Queensland, oil and gas businesses are scrambling to sell assets, often at greatly reduced prices, to pay back the debts incurred to buy them… It is a reflection, some say, of worries about the destabilizing effects of the industry’s mountain of debt. From 2006 to 2014, the global oil and gas industry’s debts almost tripled, from about $1.1tn to $3tn…"

... y recuerdo que los inventarios de crudo siguen subiendo y acercándose al límite de capacidad.













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